Sierra Vista Real Estate: 50 Years of Droughts, Recoveries, and Resilience

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    If you’ve lived in Sierra Vista long enough, you know our housing market doesn’t move in straight lines. It’s more like the desert we live in, long dry spells, sudden storms, and stretches of slow, steady growth. Over the past 50 years, we’ve had some droughts that tested patience and some recoveries that reminded us why owning here is such a solid long-term play.

Why Our Market Doesn’t Behave Like Phoenix or Tucson

Most people think “Arizona real estate” and picture Phoenix’s rollercoaster: massive booms, brutal busts, then repeat. Sierra Vista is a different animal. Why?

  • Fort Huachuca anchors the economy. When the post grows, so does the housing market. When budgets tighten or missions shift, it cools demand.

  • Water rules shape our growth. Unlike Phoenix, we can’t just sprawl forever. The San Pedro River, conservation efforts, and recharge projects all factor into whether new neighborhoods break ground.

  • We lag the big metros. When Phoenix surges, Sierra Vista often follows, but slower and with a softer landing.

That’s why our cycles are smaller in magnitude but sometimes longer in duration.

The Long Droughts (and Why They Lasted)

  • Late 1970s–80s: Mortgage rates climbed into double digits (at one point near 18%). That meant even if prices weren’t skyrocketing, payments were brutal. Locals still bought, thanks to VA loans and the Fort, but the growth was muted compared to coastal markets.

  • 2007–2015: This was the big one. While Phoenix hit bottom around 2011–12, Sierra Vista kept sliding until 2015. Why so long?

    • The foreclosure wave took time to filter through here.

    • Army drawdowns and sequestration slowed job growth.

    • Private-sector recovery lagged, so demand stayed flat.

This period felt like the desert after monsoon clouds build up but never actually rain. People waited years for prices to come back, and for a while, it looked like they wouldn’t.

The Recoveries (and What Sparked Them)

  • 1992–2004: Steady, boring growth. Honestly, this was the healthiest stretch we’ve had, just slow compounding.

  • 2015–2019: After the drought, prices started inching back up. Not fast, but steady. Buyers who got in during this window essentially bought at the bottom.

  • 2020–2022: The rocket ship. Pandemic moves, historically low mortgage rates (under 3%), and a desire for space drove buyers into Sierra Vista. Our homes looked affordable compared to Tucson and Phoenix, and that pulled in demand.

  • 2023 Stall: When rates shot back up, buyers hit pause. But unlike the crash of 2007, this wasn’t a collapse, just a breather.

  • 2024–2025: The rebound. Rates cooled a little, inventory stayed tight, and demand caught back up. By mid-2025, prices hit all-time highs.

Lessons From 50 Years

  • Rates write the story. Every drought and recovery has a rate component. High = drought. Low = rain.

  • The Fort is our stabilizer. Even during national crashes, demand never went to zero here. PCS orders keep people moving in and out.

  • Water will shape the future. Growth isn’t endless, and policies around the San Pedro will either unlock or restrict the next wave of development.

Looking Ahead (2025–2030)

I’m not in the prediction business, but history gives us clues:

  • If rates ease into the 5s, buyers will have more breathing room.

  • As long as Fort Huachuca holds strong missions, housing demand stays healthy.

  • Big water policy shifts could either accelerate growth or cap it hard.

And here’s a wildcard worth watching:
Over just the past month, there’s been fresh chatter about Space Force and expanded cyber/space operations potentially tying into Fort Huachuca. Add to that the news that BlackStar Orbital has signed a lease at the Sierra Vista Municipal Airport, and suddenly the “space” conversation doesn’t feel so far-fetched.

If Sierra Vista does land a bigger role in space and satellite operations, the impact on housing could be massive. More troops, more contractors, more high-skill jobs, meaning more families looking for homes. And since our new construction is already limited by water and land use, that kind of demand spike could push prices and rents up faster than builders could keep pace.

Would it happen? Nobody’s betting the farm on it yet. But if history has shown us anything, it’s that when missions shift at the Fort, or when new industries take root here, the housing market follows, quickly.

Bottom Line

Sierra Vista’s market is resilient. We don’t boom and bust like Phoenix, but we do have long droughts and slow recoveries that test patience. Right now, we’re sitting at new highs, but if the past 50 years have taught us anything, it’s this: the people who buy smart, hold through the dry spells, and play the long game always come out ahead.

👋 Before You Go

I write these updates to help you understand Sierra Vista’s market so you can stay informed, clear-headed, and ready to act when the right opportunity pops up.

If you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just want to check in on your property’s current value, text or call me anytime at 520-481-2909. Always happy to help.

Best,
Josh


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Location: Sierra Vista, AZ, USA

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